Executive Summary
The purpose of this report is to undertake a cost benefit analysis of Taonga mō ngā Tamariki, a Storytime Foundation whānau reading and literacy intervention based on an adaptation of the Early Reading Together® and Reading Together® Te Pānui Ngātahi programmes, and delivered to parents and caregivers in the care and under the management of Corrections and their whānau.
Crime imposes significant costs on society, with the justice system (police, courts and prisons) a large part of these costs.
Recidivism is the largest driver of prison population and costs, and offers large potential savings and outcomes for any successful recidivism-reduction programmes. How to intervene to reduce recidivism is recognized as a complex challenge.
Despite this complexity, the potential social and financial benefits from even a small reduction in the recidivism rate are so large, that programmes with only a narrow and small potential impact can still make economic sense to run.
Measuring results, and attributing any changes in recidivism rates to particular programmes, is likely to be very difficult. Measuring results is still useful, however, to justify the investment in any programme. Significant results that can be attributed to recidivism reduction programmes with any confidence are likely to be based on a large number of programme participants post release. This, in turn, almost certainly means after a period of several years.
In the interim, programme measurement is best focused on identifying the conditions which drive behavioural changes that result in reduced recidivism.
Measurable programme outputs, outcomes and impacts are likely to be more credible when the programme has a theory of change and programme design that is demonstrably consistent with best practice. While it is not yet possible to measure the recidivism rate of programme participants, it is possible to estimate the rates the programme should deliver, based on other programmes that applied the same behavioural model and design principles, along with other evidence.
The Taonga mō ngā Tamariki Programme aligns with evidence for recidivism interventions, has a credible theory of change, and has evidence of positive performance on the key outputs targeted. The programme could reasonably be expected to reduce recidivism by programme participants, and potentially their children.
Operating costs for the Taonga mō ngā Tamariki Programme (provided) are $3,680 per course within prisons, and $2,400 per course for Community Service participants. Assuming an average of six participants per course this equates to $614 per prison inmate and $400 per person on Community Service.
Estimated overhead costs, for books etc., have been reported as $750 per programme course.
The breakeven scenarios show that, based on the assumed 564-day prison sentence, $142,400 cost/prisoner/year, $116,000 police and court costs/sentence, the reported Programme costs, and using a five percent real discount rate, the Programme can be run for 21 years (once per year in all 18 prisons), and deliver modestly positive Net Present Value (NPV)[1] even if only very few prison sentences are avoided:
- Nine sentences, if no sentences are avoided until 20 years hence (after 1,368 Programme participants to year 18), an intentionally conservative benefit delivery timeframe;
- four sentences if all are avoided 3 years hence (after 216 Programme participants to year 2); and,
- six sentences avoided if three are avoided both 3 years and 20 years hence (a current prisoner/next generation scenario).
With RQ benefits of 0.4%, 1.9% and 2.8% respectively, these breakeven scenarios seem very modest, relative to programme results reported from a literature search.
The other six scenarios modelled are shown to project NPV outcomes from a likely more realistic, even delivery of benefits across the 21-year assumed Programme duration, given different RQ benefit levels, cost and benefit inputs.
These scenarios show that an investment of NZ$80,000 each year on the Taonga mō ngā Tamariki Programme is projected to deliver an NPV of between $2.5 million and $51.8 million after 21 years (0.9% to 13.2% RQ benefit), or $1.3 million to $27.9 million NPV at 10 years. Lower, but still attractive NPVs are projected if the average sentence days avoided is half that assumed. If double the number of Programme courses are conducted, costs will double and, for each RQ benefit scenario, benefits will also double (and so on).
Expressed as dollar benefits, every dollar invested is likely to return at least $3.45 in benefits.
Benchmarking from similar programmes shows the return is more likely to be between $10.34 and $51.70 for each dollar invested. This will at least in part depend on the programme being implemented effectively, in conjunction with regular child-centred visiting designed to support whānau relationships. This does not take into account any benefits associated with an interruption of intergenerational offending.
Cost benefit modelling shows that the Taonga mō ngā Tamariki Programme is capable of creating significant value (positive net present value) with Recidivism Quotient results at the low end of other programme results reported internationally, with very significant value created at higher RQ outcomes.
There is also credible evidence that Taonga mō ngā Tamariki has the potential to interrupt intergenerational offending; by strengthening whānau connections, implementing a structured literacy programme and providing access to books. While the behaviour changes and impacts of the programme once whānau leave the care of Corrections have not yet been evaluated, given the low cost of the Programme, relative to the cost savings from avoided prison terms, a favourable dollar-return per dollar-spent ratio can be achieved even with relatively few examples of success.
Download the full report here.
Download the TMNT Cost Benefit Analysis Graphic as a PDF
Download the TMNT – In Our Words Graphic as a PDF
Download the TMNT – Theory of Change Graphic as a PDF
[1] Net present value is used to compare the initial investment with the benefits the investment delivers. As the costs and benefits are not in the same years, they are translated into dollars at the time of the initial investment so they can be compared.